Sistem Informasi Prediksi Stok Sparepart Motor Menggunakkan Metode Single Moving Average

Abstract

Usaha dagang adalah salah satu kegiatan penjualan dan pembelian barang atau jasa dengan tujuan untuk meraih keuntungan. Penjualan sparepart motor adalah jenis usaha yang menjual produk sparepart motor seperti kampas rem, busi, ban, shock, oli mesin dan sparepart kendaraan bermotor lainnya. Prediksi penjualan dibutukan dalam proses persediaan barang agar tidak terjadi kehabisan stok. Penelitian ini menggunakan data penjualan barang sparepart jenis Mpx 2 periode 2021 jangka waktu periode Juli – Desember. Proses prediksi dalam penelitian ini mengunakan metode perhitungan SMA (Single Moving Average). Perhitungan prediksi bulan Juli 2021 sampai Januari 2022 dihitung menggunakkan Rumus Single Moving Average didapatkan hasil 117,8333. Hasil perhitungan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) adalah 2.777773. Berdasarkan perhitungan pengukuran nilai akurasi menggunakkan metode MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) Hasil Nilai MAPE yaitu 2,45 maka sistem prediksi pada studi kasus menunjukkan hasil dengan kategori Sangat Baik karena nilai 2,45 termasuk kedalam klasifikasi Sangat Baik. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian pengguna menggunakan kuesioner yang terdiri atas pengujian dari sisi admin (15 responden) dengan nilai 96% dan pengujian pengguna dari sisi pemilik dengan nilai 100% maka dari itu sistem yang dibangun dapat dikatakan baik, mudah di pahami, dan sangat membantu kinerja proses prediksi stok barang di ARTHA MOTOR Karanganyar.

Kata Kunci : Sistem, Informasi, Prediksi, Single, Moving, Average

Trading business is one of the activities of selling and buying goods or services to make a profit. Sales of motorcycle spare parts is one type of trading business, a trading business engaged in the sale of motorcycle spare parts itself conducts buying and selling activities for spare parts to maintain motorcycles such as tires, brake linings, spark plugs, shocks, engine oil, and many more such as study sites. the case in this study, namely in ARTHA MOTOR Karanganyar ARTHA MOTOR is a trading business engaged in the sale of motorcycle spare parts owned by individuals. ARTHA MOTOR is a trading business that is progressing at this time, it can be seen from the amount of inventory available. Based on the results of interviews with the business owners, it was stated that there were many requests for spare parts, so ARTHA MOTOR tried to meet customer needs by completing the types of spare parts and increasing the stock of goods available at the store so that they were no longer out of stock. Utilization of information technology through the Information System can help the spare part prediction process by applying the SMA (Single Moving Average) calculation model, from the spare part sales data obtained from the calculation, ACF (Autocorrelation Function) & PACF (Partial Autocorrelation Function) no lag that cuts or outside the red interval line. Therefore, the data can be said to be stationary data and the calculation results from ACF & PACF obtained MAPE with length 6 of 2.4509.

Keywords: System, Information, Prediction, Single, Moving, Average